Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 40.000832 43.736878 47.905183 52.951120 58.965074 65.998087 74.992931
2025-06-29 34.367431 38.909412 44.302076 51.320605 60.446769 72.281073 89.493169
2025-07-06 30.704728 35.489013 41.387850 49.426817 60.508918 75.984856 100.875232
2025-07-13 29.679434 35.049152 41.939392 51.815929 66.377041 88.636781 129.570422
2025-07-20 27.913215 33.424711 40.684643 51.453670 68.102737 95.338900 151.234685
2025-07-27 27.433777 33.406441 41.530178 54.111819 74.812558 112.020752 202.419651
2025-08-03 26.522943 32.699312 41.303755 55.079242 78.902116 125.299558 257.864922
2025-08-10 25.500198 31.743493 40.607027 55.181958 81.456018 136.369034 320.533827
2025-08-17 24.182632 30.277191 39.028276 53.655093 80.716159 139.936036 362.850050
2025-08-24 22.978205 28.902595 37.487586 52.029195 79.518650 142.090693 404.250986
2025-08-31 22.630052 28.742686 37.773743 53.515083 84.718827 162.493898 595.587519
2025-09-07 21.988528 28.109684 37.271995 53.558290 86.940772 175.974941 818.343501
2025-09-14 21.060218 27.129251 36.354912 53.145362 89.014450 193.529373 1359.397818
2025-09-21 19.953066 25.826087 34.840993 51.496930 88.054599 201.281607 2106.476747
2025-09-28 18.908565 24.556981 33.287208 49.592405 86.093439 204.497540 3246.702670
2025-10-05 18.755197 24.637715 33.946231 51.995279 95.358269 263.670293 NaN
2025-10-12 18.133793 23.949684 33.256001 51.630904 97.372241 293.532109 NaN
2025-10-19 18.050332 24.099585 34.001879 54.304816 108.882632 407.631670 NaN
2025-10-26 17.706472 23.808986 33.949629 55.278110 115.820727 521.981723 NaN
2025-11-02 17.264529 23.333851 33.529812 55.381455 120.039338 638.509439 NaN
2025-11-09 16.632168 22.517761 32.441359 53.845342 118.095740 669.327519 NaN
2025-11-16 16.026162 21.722607 31.351265 52.209795 115.446423 685.009293 NaN
2025-11-23 15.865680 21.656742 31.594306 53.704493 125.044028 1039.682644 NaN